Probability Basics
The box of dice:
- 99% fair, 1% loaded (50% at six)
- randomly pick a die and roll
- If we get 3 six in a row, what’s the chance that the die is loaded?
- If we get 5 six in a row, what’s
the chance that the die is loaded?
Am I dying ?:
- There is a rare deadly disease is present in the population at 1 in 100,000
- A test for this disease will report positive for 99.5% of people with disease, and negative 99.9% of time for those without.
- One day, I took this test, and got a Postivite result. Am I dying?